The Chesapeake Bay is a large estuary on the Atlantic coast of the United States covering about 7000 square miles and splitting both the states of Maryland and Virginia in two. Estuaries are common in coastal areas where streams or rivers enter the ocean. The Chesapeake Bay is an unusually long estuary, stretching 206 miles from the border of Pennsylvania and Maryland to its confluence with the ocean near Norfolk, Virginia. The Susquehanna River which starts in New York State and flows through Pennsylvania is the Chesapeake Bay’s main tributary. In fact the Chesapeake Bay is actually the ancient valley of the Susquehanna River which after the last glacial epoch was flooded as the glaciers melted and sea level rose. A “drowned river valley” is what geomorphologist’s call landforms like the Chesapeake Bay. Other major tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay are the Patuxent, Rappahannock, Potomac, and James Rivers.
Similar to other coastal estuaries, the Chesapeake Bay is affected by the oceans tides and is therefore a mixture of salt and fresh water, with the freshwater coming from the upland tributaries and the saline water from the ocean. The closer you get to the mouth of the Bay near Norfolk, the saltier the water gets. However, the connection between the Chesapeake Bay and the ocean is a narrow and confined one, which makes the tides in the Bay more like the Lazy River ride at the water park rather than the aggressive water slide estuaries of the San Francisco Bay or Puget Sound. Tides range from 1 to 3 feet on the Chesapeake Bay while the San Francisco Bay can range up to nearly 6 feet and the Puget Sound as much as 8 feet.
The Chesapeake Bay’s pollution problems started the day that the first European settlers stepped off the boat on Clement Island Maryland in 1634 and started clearing land, planting crops, and raising animals. The big three pollutants in the Chesapeake Bay are phosphorous, nitrogen, and sediment. Phosphorous and nitrogen are nutrients and their main sources in the Bay watershed are agricultural crops, manure from livestock operations, urban storm water, wastewater treatment plants, and atmospheric deposition from the burning of fossil fuels in power plants and motorized vehicles. Sediment of course as everyone knows comes from erosion and the chief causes of erosion in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are – agricultural practices and urban development. The fact that the Chesapeake Bay is essentially a bathtub and sediment along with nutrients settle out at the bottom, instead of flushing out to the ocean like the pollutants do in other estuaries, is one of the chief causes of the continuing eutrophication of large parts of the Bay (to learn more about nutrients and eutrophication read my post on the subject at this link https://waterblogger.org/water-quality/nutrient-pollution/)
Eutrophication is pretty much the result of the huge algal blooms caused by excess nutrients in the Bay waters. The death and decay of algae uses up dissolved oxygen in the water. Since aquatic organisms like fish, crabs, clams, worms and so forth need oxygen to breath, they pretty much avoid these “dead zones” of oxygen less water in the Bay. The nutrients at the bottom of the Bay and the regular flushing of nutrients from soil and paved surfaces into the Bay during rain events serve as a continuing source of nutrients for the algae.
The people who live in the Chesapeake Bay area have been trying to “Save the Bay” since 1983 when the Chesapeake Bay Program was established. The states of Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and the District of Columbia were the first participants. To spread the joy, other jurisdictions in the Chesapeake Bay’s enormous watershed, covering over 64,000 square mile, were signed up in 2001 to help reduce the big three pollutants. The jurisdictions include Delaware, New York, and West Virginia.
You would think with all these States getting together and all the money being spent ($73 million in 2017 alone) that the Bay would be “Saved” by now. But no, there has been very little actual will to “Save the Bay”, although everyone does a lot of talking about it. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finally got fed up with the States after 25 years of restoration efforts and pollution reduction schemes resulted in no substantial improvement in the water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. The EPA decided to work with the 7 government jurisdictions to establish a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay. The TMDL was issued at the end of 2010. I have talked about TMDLs in this blog before, but briefly for new readers: TMDLs are set for waters of the United States that are considered “impaired”. State governments are required under the Clean Water Act to report impaired waters in their jurisdiction and establish TMDLs that will restore the water for its designated use, such as swimming, fishing, or drinking.
The TMDL limits the amount of nitrogen, phosphorous and sediment each state can contribute to the Chesapeake Bay. Below are the actual allocation numbers designated in millions of pounds per year per state.
| Jurisdiction |
Nitrogen |
Phosphorous |
Sediment |
| |
|
|
|
| Pennsylvania |
73.93 |
2.93 |
1,983.78 |
| Maryland |
39.09 |
2.72 |
1,218.10 |
| Virginia |
53.42 |
5.36 |
2,578.90 |
| District of Columbia |
2.32 |
0.12 |
11.16 |
| New York |
8.77 |
0.57 |
292.96 |
| Delaware |
2.95 |
0.26 |
57.82 |
| West Virginia |
5.45 |
0.59 |
310.88 |
| TOTAL |
185. 93 |
12.54 |
6,453.61 |
Source: Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load, U.S Environmental Protection Agency, December 29, 2010
These limits reduce the total current contribution of the big three pollutants by 25% for nitrogen, 24% for phosphorous and 20% for sediment. The total is the maximum amount of the three pollutants that the Bay can receive and still meet Water Quality Standards for dissolved oxygen, water clarity, submerged vegetation, and chlorophyll a (chlorophyll a is a measurement means of determining how much algae is in the water).
In order to meet these goals each State had to submit to EPA a Watershed Implementation Plan showing what projects would be undertaken to meet their limits. As part of each state plan there are short and long term milestones that must be met. The goal is to meet Water Quality Standards in the Bay by 2025. Well that’s not exactly correct. In reality and according to the scientist’s models, the Chesapeake Bay will only theoretically meet Water Quality Standards by 2025. The scientists studying and working to “Save the Bay” often refer to a “lag time” for achieving Water Quality Standards which is a result of the legacy pollutants built up in the Bay and all of its tributaries, and which will continue to contribute to poor water quality even after the limits for the big 3 pollutants are met in 2025.
By setting the TMDL, the EPA essentially drives the Chesapeake Bay Program now. There are short term milestones to be achieved every 2 years in order to show incremental progress in restoring the Bay. These short-term milestones are primarily agricultural management improvements to reduce pollution, because it is the easiest way of achieving progress. There is a good bit of money available through the Department of Agriculture to assist farmers in conservation efforts. These agricultural management strategies target alternative and cover crops, tillage practices, manure waste management, water control structures, pasture management, etc. Other easy short term targets are restoration of wetlands, planting of stream side (riparian) vegetation like trees, and reductions in the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen since nitrogen is regulated under the Clean Air Act causing the amount of nitrogen in the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion to slowly decrease over the years.
To see if the TMDL and the long range milestones in the Watershed Implementation Plans would restore the Bay by 2025 as envisioned, the EPA decided to ask the National Research Council (NRC) to assess whether their new plan to “Save the Bay” would achieve its goals and objectives. It was the first real outside assessment of the Bay Program other than a nasty General Accounting Office assessment in 2005. The NRC published a great big report on the subject in 2011, entitled “Achieving Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Goals in the Chesapeake Bay.”
It is an amazing report, full of interesting statistics. For example did you know that 17 million people live in the Chesapeake Bay watershed? That’s a lot of people. But those people are widely dispersed, except for urban centers like Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. Only 7 % of the land in the watershed is urban and amazingly only 22 % is agricultural land. The rest is wooded and open space. But the report brings up the worrisome nature of the continued urban growth within the watershed.
According to the NRC, there has been significant success in decreasing nutrients from municipal waste water treatment plants in urban centers. Permit requirements were put in place back in 2005 which resulted in massive upgrades to nutrient removal systems in the wastewater treatment works of cities and towns within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The NRC cites statistics that as of 2009, 78% of wastewater treatment plants had achieved 78 % of the reduction goals for nitrogen and 99 % of the phosphorous goals set by EPA to improve water quality in the Bay. But as the NRC points out, as population in the watershed grows, there will simply be more wastewater to treat, and more effluent released into the rivers to flow down to the Bay.
The NRC report outlines major concerns with storm water reduction goals for urban areas. Storm water is the water that runs off of streets and yards into either a storm water collection system or directly into water ways. The report says the limits set for reduction of pollutants from storm water will be the most difficult to achieve because of the high costs and the low removal rates of technologies used to decrease the big 3 pollutants. The NRC questions the ability to achieve the storm water pollution reduction goals due to the rapid rate of population growth and development in the Chesapeake Bay’s watershed. What sort of technologies is the NRC referring to for storm water management? They are talking about rain gardens, use of pervious materials instead of asphalt and concrete, use of narrower streets, and sunken medians. These technologies can all be achieved through regulation for new development, but it will be hard to get existing development to implement them because of the expense. The NRC says they are costly and inefficient because they rely on their widespread use across a landscape to remove pollution from many small sources.
What do they look like? Here’s pictures of some rain gardens installed in new development. This is on a large piece of property where there was only one house, but zoning authorities allowed it to be torn down and 5 houses built in its place as long as they installed rain gardens.

I know you are laughing. This is supposed to “Save the Bay”? And how long do you think these are going to stay in place before the homeowners see them as a safety issue for children playing in the yard? That is the other problem with these types of features – maintaining them.
The other source of pollution that the NRC says will be difficult to reduce is the nutrient pollution from septic tanks. The NRC report states that between 1990 and 2000, the watershed population increased by 8 % but the land converted to development more than doubled. Much of this development is what you often hear referred to as “suburban sprawl” and many of the areas where it has occurred do not have access to urban wastewater treatment systems. NRC says 25 % of the housing in the Chesapeake Bay watershed is served by septic tanks which produce 33 million pounds of nitrogen every year. Most of that nitrogen ends up in the groundwater and is slowly transported through groundwater flow into surface water bodies and down to the Bay. The amount of time (sometimes decades) groundwater takes to reach the Bay is another lag time issue that scientists have pointed out in discussions about meeting Water Quality Standards by 2025. These days, very efficient nitrogen removal septic systems are available, but even if everyone installed one at their house, there is still all the legacy nitrogen in the groundwater from the old systems which is slowly flowing like a ticking time bomb toward the tributaries of the Bay. But of course not everyone is going to install super efficient septic systems because they are extremely costly. Many States plan on transitioning all these homes to centralized wastewater systems – another expensive endeavor.
The NRC says the population within the Chesapeake Bay watershed is estimated to reach 19 million people by 2030. Based on the current land development rate, the amount of developed land could increase by 60 %. Impervious surfaces cover 18 % of all lands in the watershed now and, according to the NRC, stream water quality is impaired when impervious surfaces in a watershed cover 5 to 6 % of the land.
So it has been seven years since the TMDL for the Bay was established and there are only eight more years in front of us until the Bay must meet Water Quality Standards. How do you think the restoration effort is going? Well it is easy to find out. The EPA produces a report every year titled: The Bay Barometer. The 2017 report is not available yet, so I took a look at the 2016 Bay Barometer. There’s some good news in the report. The number of acres of submerged grasses has greatly increased through restoration efforts. These underwater grasses are critical in providing food and shelter to aquatic animals. They also produce dissolved oxygen and absorb nutrient pollution. The Bay Program’s goal is to restore 185,000 acres by 2025 and already half of that has been achieved. Eighty two percent of a targeted 2500 miles of stream has been opened to migrating fish by removing dams and culverts. Blue crabs are back in the Bay in great numbers as a result of crab harvesting restrictions. The goal was 215 million adult females by 2025 and already 90% of that number has been reached. Unfortunately that is about it on the success level. Planting trees along streams is way down; only 9 % of the wetlands targeted for restoration have been achieved; and only 50% of the land targeted for conservation has been protected.
There have been some improvements in water quality. Thirty seven percent of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries met Water Quality Standards for dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and clarity. That’s a 10 % increase over the previous reporting period, but it is far below the 100 % expected by 2025.
As for the big three pollutants, there was a 25 % reduction in nitrogen, a 44 % reduction in phosphorous, and a 59 % reduction in sediment from the previous year. Unfortunately again and according to The Bay Barometer, the reductions are due to the volume of river flow, which leads to the sad sorry fact that nitrogen, phosphorous and sediment levels are the highest during years of high rain when the rivers and streams are pouring water into the Bay and that the pollutants levels are lowest during dry years when the volumes are far less. The highest amount of nitrogen, phosphorous and sediment recorded in the last 10 years was in 2011 after Tropical Storm Lee.
The Chesapeake Bay Program is a good endeavor, even if its successes so far have not been great. At least the whole Bay is not completely lacking in dissolved oxygen. If things had continued as they were, the Bay would probably be in much worse shape than it is now. The best analogy for the Chesapeake Bay’s pollution problems might be the nursery rhyme of Humpty Dumpty who sat on a wall from where he had a great fall; then all the king’s horses and all the king’s men never could put Humpty back together again. The Humpty Dumpty Bay will continue as long as overdevelopment occurs in the Bay’s watershed. Development has broken the natural processes that once kept the Bay a healthy ecosystem. Government officials, scientists and non-governmental institutions are working hard to “Save the Bay”, but without restrictions on development, the task is like another analogy I can think of: Sisyphus pushing the ball up the hill in Hades.